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As we move into the second quarter of 2025, Calgary's real estate market is feeling the effects of ongoing economic uncertainty, primarily driven by tariff threats that have dampened consumer confidence. This uncertainty has led to a notable shift in housing activity, with March’s sales figures showing a 19% decline year-over-year, totaling 2,159 units. While a slowdown in sales is expected in such conditions, the broader picture reveals some interesting trends and shifts that are impacting the market.
A Decrease in Sales Across All Property Types
The decline in sales wasn’t isolated to one segment of the market—it was widespread, affecting all property types. However, the steepest drops were seen in higher-density segments, including apartments and row-style homes. This shift can be largely attributed to the unease surrounding the broader economy, which has led buyers to become more cautious, particularly in the higher-density, often more volatile, areas of the market.
That said, it’s important to keep perspective. While the 19% drop is significant, it’s crucial to note that current sales figures still outpace anything reported from 2015 to 2020, a period during which Calgary faced significant economic challenges and job losses. In this context, even with the recent pullback, the housing market remains stronger than it was during those years of greater economic instability.
A Shift Toward Balanced Market Conditions
With demand easing, the Calgary market has seen an increase in new listings. In March, over 4,000 new listings were recorded, which significantly impacted the sales-to-new-listing ratio, dropping it to 54%. This ratio is low enough to indicate that inventory levels are rising, which is contributing to a shift toward more balanced market conditions. After four consecutive years of a seller’s market, where competition for homes was intense and inventory was limited, the scales are now tipping toward a more neutral position.
Total residential inventory in March reached 5,154 units, with the months of supply increasing to 2.4 months. While this is still below what would be considered a typical “buyer’s market,” it’s a notable improvement compared to the limited supply options seen in the previous years. This shift provides more breathing room for buyers, with more options and less pressure to act quickly.
Price Stability Amid Rising Inventory
The increase in supply is also taking some of the pressure off home prices, which had seen steep gains over the past four years. In March, the unadjusted residential benchmark price reached $592,500. This figure was relatively stable compared to both the previous month and March of 2024, suggesting that while prices are holding steady, they are no longer on the sharp upward trajectory of the past few years.
When looking at the breakdown of property types, detached and semi-detached homes are continuing to report prices at or near their peak levels, and there is even some upward movement in these segments. On the other hand, apartments and row-style homes are experiencing slight price reductions, remaining lower than last year’s peak.
This price divergence indicates that the market remains somewhat segmented, with certain property types performing better than others. The higher-end and detached markets seem to be relatively resilient, while more affordable or higher-density property types are feeling the strain of the broader economic uncertainty.
Looking Ahead: The Future of Calgary’s Real Estate Market
As we move forward into the spring of 2025, the Calgary real estate market is entering a period of transition. Economic factors, particularly the uncertainty around tariffs, will likely continue to influence buyer behavior and market activity. However, the increasing inventory levels and the shift toward more balanced market conditions provide some optimism for both buyers and sellers.
For potential buyers, there may be opportunities to find homes with less competition and more options than in previous years, though it’s essential to stay aware of the variations across different property types, price ranges, and locations. Sellers, on the other hand, may need to adjust their expectations, as the days of fierce competition and sky-high offers may be behind us—at least for now.
As always, working with an experienced local real estate agent can help buyers and sellers navigate the shifting conditions and make informed decisions based on their specific needs and goals. Whether you’re looking to buy or sell, the Calgary market offers a range of opportunities, but being attuned to current trends will be key to making the right move in 2025.
